Week One After X: The Market That Refused to Retreat
Six days after the new excise regime took effect, the market did not shrink, did not shift to safer cars, and did not blink. New listings rose 16% versus early March, the median jumped 19%, and the high-risk uncleared 2014–2019 cohort grew 37% in volume at 25% higher prices. Sellers chose one strategy: pass the new excise to the buyer.
Snapshot — April 1–6, 2026
The Week That Refused to Retreat
Six days into the new excise regime, the simplest forecasts have all failed. We expected a volume crash. We expected sellers to pivot toward newer, safer cars. We expected the high-risk 2014–2019 cohort to thin out as dealers shed their riskiest inventory before listing new ones. None of that happened.
Instead, AutoBridge recorded 1,322 new passenger car listings between April 1 and April 6 — 16% more than the same six days in early March. The median asking price climbed from $10,900 to $13,000, a 19% jump in five weeks. And 40% of those listings still come from the very age cohort the new excise was designed to choke. The market did not retreat. It marked everything up and kept moving.
The Week That Refused to Retreat
Six days into the new excise regime, the simplest forecasts have all failed. We expected a volume crash. We expected sellers to pivot toward newer, safer cars. We expected the high-risk 2014–2019 cohort to thin out as dealers shed their riskiest inventory before listing new ones. None of that happened.
Instead, AutoBridge recorded 1,322 new passenger car listings between April 1 and April 6 — 16% more than the same six days in early March. The median asking price climbed from $10,900 to $13,000, a 19% jump in five weeks. And 40% of those listings still come from the very age cohort the new excise was designed to choke. The market did not retreat. It marked everything up and kept moving.
Snapshot — April 1–6, 2026
No Panic. No Reset. Just More.
The deadline was supposed to be a cliff. The data shows a sidewalk. Daily new listings averaged 213 per day in the final ten days of March; in the first six days of April, they averaged 220. April 1 itself produced 277 new listings — the second-highest single-day count in the entire two-week window.
The 2014–2019 cohort, which sits in the middle of the new excise blast zone, kept appearing at the same rate it had through March: roughly 80–110 new listings per day. The cohort that should be vanishing is the one that keeps showing up.
This is the first signal that what we're watching isn't a market in retreat. It's a market in negotiation. Sellers haven't given up on their inventory — they've decided to test what the buyer will absorb.
No Panic. No Reset. Just More.
The deadline was supposed to be a cliff. The data shows a sidewalk. Daily new listings averaged 213 per day in the final ten days of March; in the first six days of April, they averaged 220. April 1 itself produced 277 new listings — the second-highest single-day count in the entire two-week window.
The 2014–2019 cohort, which sits in the middle of the new excise blast zone, kept appearing at the same rate it had through March: roughly 80–110 new listings per day. The cohort that should be vanishing is the one that keeps showing up.
This is the first signal that what we're watching isn't a market in retreat. It's a market in negotiation. Sellers haven't given up on their inventory — they've decided to test what the buyer will absorb.
The Universal Markup
Every car built in 2014 or later is more expensive in early April than it was in early March. The 2014–2019 cohort jumped 22% on average. The 2020–2023 segment rose 19%. Even the 2024+ premium tier added 18%. The hike isn't a panic on a few risky models — it's a universal repricing across the entire post-2014 market.
Below 2014, where the new excise barely bites, prices barely moved. The 2010–2013 bucket lost about 2%. Pre-2010 cars dropped 5%. The line between "hit by excise" and "not hit by excise" runs exactly through model year 2014, and it shows up in the asking prices to the percentage point.
But the most extreme corner of the market is the uncleared 2014–2019 cohort. These are the cars facing the maximum customs cost under the new rules. Logically they should be retreating. In reality their volume grew 37%, their average price climbed 25%, and their median climbed 19%. Sellers are not just holding the line. They are doubling down.
The Universal Markup
Every car built in 2014 or later is more expensive in early April than it was in early March. The 2014–2019 cohort jumped 22% on average. The 2020–2023 segment rose 19%. Even the 2024+ premium tier added 18%. The hike isn't a panic on a few risky models — it's a universal repricing across the entire post-2014 market.
Below 2014, where the new excise barely bites, prices barely moved. The 2010–2013 bucket lost about 2%. Pre-2010 cars dropped 5%. The line between "hit by excise" and "not hit by excise" runs exactly through model year 2014, and it shows up in the asking prices to the percentage point.
But the most extreme corner of the market is the uncleared 2014–2019 cohort. These are the cars facing the maximum customs cost under the new rules. Logically they should be retreating. In reality their volume grew 37%, their average price climbed 25%, and their median climbed 19%. Sellers are not just holding the line. They are doubling down.
Tbilisi Pays. Regions Stay Quiet.
Pull the country apart by city and the universal markup turns out to be anything but universal. In Tbilisi, the average asking price climbed from $14,306 to $18,744 — a 31% jump. In the regions, it dropped from $16,443 to $12,459 — down 24%. Two cohorts of sellers, looking at the same law, made opposite decisions in the same week.
Tbilisi accounts for 87% of all new listings in early April and absorbed essentially all of the price hike. Regional dealers added almost no new inventory (164 listings versus 162 in early March) and chose, on average, to list cheaper cars rather than chase a higher price.
The split has a simple read: Tbilisi dealers believe their buyers will follow the price. Regional dealers either don't, or have a different inventory mix that doesn't lend itself to the markup play. Either way, the new excise didn't shock the market into a single behavior — it surfaced two parallel ones.
Tbilisi Pays. Regions Stay Quiet.
Pull the country apart by city and the universal markup turns out to be anything but universal. In Tbilisi, the average asking price climbed from $14,306 to $18,744 — a 31% jump. In the regions, it dropped from $16,443 to $12,459 — down 24%. Two cohorts of sellers, looking at the same law, made opposite decisions in the same week.
Tbilisi accounts for 87% of all new listings in early April and absorbed essentially all of the price hike. Regional dealers added almost no new inventory (164 listings versus 162 in early March) and chose, on average, to list cheaper cars rather than chase a higher price.
The split has a simple read: Tbilisi dealers believe their buyers will follow the price. Regional dealers either don't, or have a different inventory mix that doesn't lend itself to the markup play. Either way, the new excise didn't shock the market into a single behavior — it surfaced two parallel ones.
Premium Goes Hardest
Mass-market brands raised their average price by 7%. Premium brands raised theirs by 35%. The premium segment also grew 29% in volume — almost three times the rate of the mass market. Whatever pricing experiment is happening in this market, premium dealers are running it at full intensity.
Drill into the dealer subset and the picture sharpens further. Across all segments, the average price on a dealer-listed car climbed 70% in five weeks ($14,072 → $23,882), while private sellers stayed close to inflation at +12%. The same number of dealer listings (around 250) is now spread across more dealers (76 → 90), each posting fewer cars on average and asking far more for them.
The premium uncleared 2014–2019 sub-cohort is the sharpest point of all of this. Its volume grew 55% and its average price climbed 30% — the most aggressive corner of an already aggressive market. These are the cars that should be hardest to sell under the new rules; they are the ones being listed most enthusiastically.
Premium Goes Hardest
Mass-market brands raised their average price by 7%. Premium brands raised theirs by 35%. The premium segment also grew 29% in volume — almost three times the rate of the mass market. Whatever pricing experiment is happening in this market, premium dealers are running it at full intensity.
Drill into the dealer subset and the picture sharpens further. Across all segments, the average price on a dealer-listed car climbed 70% in five weeks ($14,072 → $23,882), while private sellers stayed close to inflation at +12%. The same number of dealer listings (around 250) is now spread across more dealers (76 → 90), each posting fewer cars on average and asking far more for them.
The premium uncleared 2014–2019 sub-cohort is the sharpest point of all of this. Its volume grew 55% and its average price climbed 30% — the most aggressive corner of an already aggressive market. These are the cars that should be hardest to sell under the new rules; they are the ones being listed most enthusiastically.
Brand Movers
Beneath the price story, the brand mix shifted noticeably. German and Korean nameplates surged into the new listing pool while several Japanese mainstays receded.
Volkswagen, Lexus, Kia, Hyundai and BMW all posted volume gains above 50%. Honda nearly halved. Toyota, Subaru, Nissan and Ford slipped a few percentage points each. The reshuffle isn't huge enough to call a structural change yet — but it's the second-largest week-on-week movement in the brand mix this quarter.
The Buyer Hasn't Spoken Yet
Sellers have made their move: pass the new excise to the buyer, mark up the entire post-2014 inventory, double down on the riskiest cohort, and let Tbilisi lead. The market we are watching this week is the supply side's opening offer. The demand side hasn't responded.
The next checkpoint is the second half of April. If buyers absorb the markup, the new prices stick and a new equilibrium forms 20% above the old one. If they don't, the same dealers who marked everything up this week will be the first to cut next week — and the high-risk uncleared cohort, now visibly inflated, will be the first place we see the reset.
Methodology
AutoBridge proprietary database (120,900+ active listings).
1,322 new passenger car listings posted between April 1 and April 6, 2026, compared against 1,137 listings from the equivalent baseline window (March 1–6, 2026). Duplicates and internal listings excluded.
Real-time snapshot: April 1–6, 2026 (six days after the new excise regime). Baseline: March 1–6, 2026. Continues analysis from "Excise Shock" (March 17), "The Deadline Effect" (March 20), and "Day X+2" (April 3).