Georgia’s Export-to-Import Flow Ratio Rebounded in Q2 After a Weak Q1
Georgia imported 100,616 cars and exported 38,759 in the first half of 2026. Same-period exports equalled 38.5 vehicles per 100 imports, down from 42.8 a year earlier. The half-year decline was concentrated in the first quarter; the ratio rose to 45.9 in the second. This is a comparison of customs flows, not a cohort re-export rate.
Car imports, exports and their same-period residual
HS 8703 vehicle units, January–June. The residual is an accounting difference, not a count of vehicles absorbed in Georgia.
The residual is an accounting difference
In January–June 2026, Georgia recorded 100,616 imported motor cars and 38,759 exported motor cars under HS 8703. Imports minus exports equal 61,857 vehicles. The same calculation gave 65,656 in H1 2025 and 51,036 in H1 2024.
That residual is not a count of vehicles purchased or retained in Georgia. The cars imported and exported during the same six months are not matched. A car imported in one period can be exported much later, while inventories can build or decline between periods. Customs-flow data are not a vehicle register or a stock ledger.
The residual can be compared consistently over time, but it should be called exactly what it is: imports minus exports recorded in the same period.
The residual is an accounting difference
In January–June 2026, Georgia recorded 100,616 imported motor cars and 38,759 exported motor cars under HS 8703. Imports minus exports equal 61,857 vehicles. The same calculation gave 65,656 in H1 2025 and 51,036 in H1 2024.
That residual is not a count of vehicles purchased or retained in Georgia. The cars imported and exported during the same six months are not matched. A car imported in one period can be exported much later, while inventories can build or decline between periods. Customs-flow data are not a vehicle register or a stock ledger.
The residual can be compared consistently over time, but it should be called exactly what it is: imports minus exports recorded in the same period.
Car imports, exports and their same-period residual
HS 8703 vehicle units, January–June. The residual is an accounting difference, not a count of vehicles absorbed in Georgia.
Same-period exports per 100 imports, January–June
Exports divided by imports recorded in the same half-year. Numerator and denominator are not matched vehicle cohorts.
The same-period flow ratio fell in H1
Imports fell 12.3% year on year, from 114,778 to 100,616. Exports fell faster, by 21.1%, from 49,122 to 38,759.
Same-period exports therefore equalled 38.5 per 100 imports in H1 2026, compared with 42.8 in H1 2025. The residual became smaller in absolute terms because both flows shrank, but it became larger as a share of imports.
The export-to-import ratio is useful for describing the relative size of two flows. It is not the percentage of imported cars that were re-exported, because the numerator and denominator do not contain the same vehicles.
The same-period flow ratio fell in H1
Imports fell 12.3% year on year, from 114,778 to 100,616. Exports fell faster, by 21.1%, from 49,122 to 38,759.
Same-period exports therefore equalled 38.5 per 100 imports in H1 2026, compared with 42.8 in H1 2025. The residual became smaller in absolute terms because both flows shrank, but it became larger as a share of imports.
The export-to-import ratio is useful for describing the relative size of two flows. It is not the percentage of imported cars that were re-exported, because the numerator and denominator do not contain the same vehicles.
Same-period exports per 100 imports, January–June
Exports divided by imports recorded in the same half-year. Numerator and denominator are not matched vehicle cohorts.
Monthly export-to-import flow ratio, 2024–2026
Same-month exports as a percentage of imports. From March 2026 the ratio rose to 52.0 in June, but monthly timing can distort the measure.
The first quarter and second quarter looked very different
The first quarter of 2026 recorded 47,211 imports and 14,237 exports. The same-period ratio was 30.2 exports per 100 imports, the weakest quarterly reading since Q2 2020 in this series.
The second quarter recorded 53,405 imports and 24,522 exports, giving a ratio of 45.9. That was close to the recent second-quarter readings of 42.9 in 2025 and 46.4 in 2024.
The monthly sequence was not monotonic across the whole half-year: January was 29.8, February 32.1 and March 29.0. From March onward, however, the ratio rose each month: 38.1 in April, 47.6 in May and 52.0 in June.
The accurate summary is that the same-period flow ratio was weak in Q1 and returned to its recent range in Q2. The data do not show whether this was a change in underlying re-export activity or merely a difference in the timing of import and export declarations.
The first quarter and second quarter looked very different
The first quarter of 2026 recorded 47,211 imports and 14,237 exports. The same-period ratio was 30.2 exports per 100 imports, the weakest quarterly reading since Q2 2020 in this series.
The second quarter recorded 53,405 imports and 24,522 exports, giving a ratio of 45.9. That was close to the recent second-quarter readings of 42.9 in 2025 and 46.4 in 2024.
The monthly sequence was not monotonic across the whole half-year: January was 29.8, February 32.1 and March 29.0. From March onward, however, the ratio rose each month: 38.1 in April, 47.6 in May and 52.0 in June.
The accurate summary is that the same-period flow ratio was weak in Q1 and returned to its recent range in Q2. The data do not show whether this was a change in underlying re-export activity or merely a difference in the timing of import and export declarations.
Monthly export-to-import flow ratio, 2024–2026
Same-month exports as a percentage of imports. From March 2026 the ratio rose to 52.0 in June, but monthly timing can distort the measure.
The longer history provides context, not a cohort rate
In the first half of 2015, exports equalled 18.5 per 100 imports. The ratio fell to 13.2 in 2016, then rose to 52.2 in 2019. From 2020 through 2024 the first-half readings ranged from 38.4 to 49.9.
The 2026 result of 38.5 is the weakest first half since 2022, when the ratio was 38.4. It is also the second consecutive annual decline from 47.6 in 2024 and 42.8 in 2025.
Two declining observations are worth monitoring, but they are not enough to establish a durable trend. The 2022 example also shows why half-year timing matters: that year’s full-year ratio was much higher than its first-half reading.
Average declared value per vehicle in import and export flows
Imports are CIF and exports FOB; the flows contain different vehicles. The chart is not a margin, price or vehicle-quality comparison.
Import and export unit values are not directly comparable
Recorded import value divided by imported units was about $16,051 per vehicle in H1 2026. Recorded export value divided by exported units was about $24,202.
The 51% difference cannot be interpreted as a dealer margin or proof that higher-value cars leave while lower-value cars stay. Imports are valued CIF and exports FOB; the two flows contain different vehicles and can refer to different purchase and processing periods. Their model, age, condition and route mix are unknown in the aggregate table.
The ratios can be reported as average declared values of the two flows. They should not be used to describe the profitability of a vehicle, the value added in Georgia or the composition of the unobserved residual without additional matched data.
Import and export unit values are not directly comparable
Recorded import value divided by imported units was about $16,051 per vehicle in H1 2026. Recorded export value divided by exported units was about $24,202.
The 51% difference cannot be interpreted as a dealer margin or proof that higher-value cars leave while lower-value cars stay. Imports are valued CIF and exports FOB; the two flows contain different vehicles and can refer to different purchase and processing periods. Their model, age, condition and route mix are unknown in the aggregate table.
The ratios can be reported as average declared values of the two flows. They should not be used to describe the profitability of a vehicle, the value added in Georgia or the composition of the unobserved residual without additional matched data.
Average declared value per vehicle in import and export flows
Imports are CIF and exports FOB; the flows contain different vehicles. The chart is not a margin, price or vehicle-quality comparison.
What this analysis cannot answer
It cannot locate the vehicles behind the residual or separate cars retained in Georgia from cars awaiting later re-export. It cannot identify why Q1 was weak or how much of the Q2 rebound reflects timing.
Geostat’s metadata state that transit goods are excluded from external merchandise trade statistics. The residual should therefore not be described as a count of cars “in transit”. It is simply the difference between recorded imports and exports.
For the queried period, Geostat recorded no domestic exports under HS 8703, so the exports in this dataset are recorded as re-exports. That still does not make the same-period export/import ratio a re-export rate for the imports in its denominator.
January–June 2026 figures are marked preliminary and may be revised. Quarterly and longer-period comparisons are more informative than a single monthly ratio because both flows are sensitive to declaration timing.
Geostat external-trade data for HS 8703, queried 20 July 2026. Ratios compare flows recorded in the same period. January–June 2026 data are preliminary.
Methodology
Data: Georgia's official trade statistics (Geostat), customs commodity code 8703 — the heading Geostat publishes as "motor cars" — for imports, exports, domestic exports and re-exports, downloaded on 20 July 2026.
How the ratio is built: exports and imports recorded in the same month, quarter or half-year are divided one by the other. The cars on each side are not the same cars: a vehicle imported in one period may be exported much later, or never. The ratio describes the relative size of two flows, not the share of imported cars that were re-exported.
Values: imports are valued CIF, including freight and insurance up to the Georgian border, and exports FOB, at the border and without onward freight. The two are not directly comparable, and neither is a retail price.
Transit: Geostat's published methodology excludes goods merely passing through the country, so the difference between imports and exports is not a count of cars in transit.
What is inside the total: code 8703 as published also contains sub-code 870310 — snowmobiles, golf cars and similar vehicles: 3,131 imported and 107 exported in the first half of 2026, about 3% of imports. They are counted here because the published national totals count them.
Monthly imports and exports recorded under code 8703 for Georgia from January 2015 to June 2026. The first half of 2026 covers 100,616 imported and 38,759 exported vehicles.
January 2015 — June 2026. Geostat marks the most recent months as preliminary and revises them, so the 2026 figures may still change. Comparisons by quarter or half-year are more reliable than single months, because both flows depend on when declarations are filed rather than on when vehicles physically move.
Sources
- Geostat — External trade data portal (HS 8703, imports and exports by flow and month)
- Geostat — External Merchandise Trade of Georgia, January–June 2026 (20 July 2026)
- Geostat — Vehicles Statistics Portal
- BM.ge — "Almost 45% of Registered Vehicles in Georgia Are in Tbilisi" (5 March 2026), reporting Geostat registration data
- Geostat — Metadata for external merchandise trade statistics (CIF/FOB valuation; transit goods excluded)